Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 77¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$412.82

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 76.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares11,287

Combined PnL+$450.69

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares11,148

Combined PnL-$37.87

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 61¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$524.72	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Underavg 68.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$3.61	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 34.1¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$389.78	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.1¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$433.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.9¢	$474.37	$517.64	+$43.27
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.11	53% 1206-1085 (2291)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.07	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 19¢	$950	$950	-$0	58% 538-389 (927)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 19.6¢	$737.9	$713.63	-$24.27	32% 716-1540 (2256)
HRTrading	Underavg 75.6¢	$196.27	$115.53	-$80.74	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$35.7	$36.4	+$0.7	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 65.8¢	$24.4	$24.67	+$0.26	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$21.83	$18.03	-$3.32	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.49	$2.62	+$0.13	56% 2631-2084 (4715)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,217.06

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$524.72

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,524.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$3.61

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,556.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$389.78

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Over$2,081.7234.1¢-$433.05

Under$474.3766.9¢+$43.27

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Over

Invested

$1,088.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.11

Record

53%

1206-1085 (2291)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$1,026.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.07

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

538-389 (927)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$737.9

Value

$713.63

PnL

-$24.27

Record

32%

716-1540 (2256)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$196.27

Value

$115.53

PnL

-$80.74

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.7

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$24.4

Value

$24.67

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.83

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$3.32

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.49

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.