Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 86%
$2.2K
$49.72
41.3¢ → 39.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 41¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$16.84 | 51% 1645-1578 (3223) |
CA CannaeCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $454.65 | $503.36 | +$48.71 | 53% 15721-13896 (29617) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $210 | $183.67 | -$12.32 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $39.9 | $37.53 | -$2.38 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $25.37 | $25.15 | -$0.21 | 53% 2956-2611 (5567) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $25 | $24.11 | -$0.89 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.98 | -$0.02 | 49% 1874-1975 (3849) |
us391CTRInvested
$1,381.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$16.84
Record
51%
1645-1578 (3223)
Invested
$454.65
Value
$503.36
PnL
+$48.71
Record
53%
15721-13896 (29617)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$210
Value
$183.67
PnL
-$12.32
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$39.9
Value
$37.53
PnL
-$2.38
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.37
Value
$25.15
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
2956-2611 (5567)
Invested
$25
Value
$24.11
PnL
-$0.89
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
1874-1975 (3849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.