Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

-$388.11

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares22,468

Combined PnL+$295.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$425.89

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL-$683.98

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$21.0K	$21.0K	+$10.49	98% 3113-75 (3188)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66.9¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$308.67	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
RN1CTR	Underavg 27.2¢	$964.65	$354.37	-$610.28	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 33¢	$264	$268	+$3	56% 6917-5536 (12453)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33¢	$132	$136	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 66¢	$132	$132	-$1
FO foooool	Overavg 79.8¢	$129.44	$104.89	-$24.55	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 88¢	$82.23	$83.07	+$0.83	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$61.2	$61.2	+$0	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 87¢	$18.81	$19.24	+$0.43	50% 3375-3317 (6692)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 5.5¢	$5.5	$10	+$4.5	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Overavg 90¢	$9	$9	+$0	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$62.48	$0.28	-$62.2	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 30.9¢	$26.49	$0.02	-$15.1	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	60% 9402-6388 (15790)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$20,953.63

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$10.49

Record

98%

3113-75 (3188)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,010.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$308.67

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$964.65

Value

$354.37

PnL

-$610.28

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$264

Value

$268

PnL

+$3

Record

56%

6917-5536 (12453)

Both legs:

Invested

$129.44

Value

$104.89

PnL

-$24.55

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$82.23

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$61.2

Value

$61.2

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$18.81

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

3375-3317 (6692)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.5

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.48

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$62.2

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.49

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.1

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.