Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$16.04

Smart Money Entry

97.1¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares13,799

Combined PnL+$28.54

Under4 traders

Total Value$207.14

Total Shares2,437

Combined PnL-$12.5

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$5	99% 12681-184 (12865)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 89¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$18.93	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 89¢	$610.99	$614.99	+$4	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 98¢	$200	$200	+$0	77% 3117-956 (4073)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 9¢	$158.01	$149.23	-$8.78	49% 1127-1157 (2284)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 98¢	$148.6	$148.6	+$0	64% 997-567 (1564)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 88¢	$40.95	$38.87	+$0.61	57% 13182-10033 (23215)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$35.94	$33.94	-$2	52% 4656-4366 (9022)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$22.5	$21.25	-$1.25	56% 2631-2084 (4715)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$3.2	$2.72	-$0.48	59% 44644-31046 (75690)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$9,990

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,847.26

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$18.93

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$610.99

Value

$614.99

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

77%

3117-956 (4073)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$158.01

Value

$149.23

PnL

-$8.78

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$148.6

Value

$148.6

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$40.95

Value

$38.87

PnL

+$0.61

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.94

Value

$33.94

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

4656-4366 (9022)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.5

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.48

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.