Spread: Genoa CFC (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus FC (67%) · Juventus FC at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Juventus FC
6
Juventus FC 67%
$2.0K
$218.21
88.2¢ → 87.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJuventus FC at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Juventus FCavg 85.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$5.05 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Genoa CFCavg 6.7¢ | $239.07 | $485.32 | +$246.25 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLoo | Juventus FCavg 98.7¢ | $262.44 | $228.67 | -$33.77 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
SN SnakeBall | Juventus FCavg 86.6¢ | $145.62 | $146.21 | +$0.58 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Juventus FCavg 95.9¢ | $19.18 | $17.2 | -$1.98 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Genoa CFCavg 5.8¢ | $1.48 | $3.55 | +$2.07 | 55% 8110-6552 (14662) |
Invested
$1,096.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$5.05
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$239.07
Value
$485.32
PnL
+$246.25
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$262.44
Value
$228.67
PnL
-$33.77
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$145.62
Value
$146.21
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.18
Value
$17.2
PnL
-$1.98
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$2.07
Record
55%
8110-6552 (14662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.