Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Genoa CFC (40%) · Genoa CFC at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Juventus FC<1¢Genoa CFC>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Genoa CFC

Consensus Traders

Genoa CFC 40%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$241.47

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.7¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGenoa CFC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Genoa CFC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Juventus FC0%

Genoa CFC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Genoa CFC2 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,677

Combined PnL-$871.56

Juventus FC3 traders

Total Value$920.71

Total Shares4,703

Combined PnL+$630.1

Genoa CFC — 40%Juventus FC — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Genoa CFCavg 93.5¢	$4.1K	$3.5K	-$615.56	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
MI MinevaJ	Genoa CFCavg 99.5¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$256	58% 1001-729 (1730)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Juventus FCavg 6.4¢	$287.46	$914.64	+$627.18	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Juventus FCavg 4.3¢	$3.29	$5.2	+$4.18	57% 13182-10033 (23215)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Juventus FCavg 1¢	$2.13	$0.86	-$1.27	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

UpTheBlues

Genoa CFC

Invested

$4,111.02

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$615.56

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

MinevaJ

Genoa CFC

Invested

$1,273.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$256

Record

58%

1001-729 (1730)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Juventus FC

Invested

$287.46

Value

$914.64

PnL

+$627.18

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Juventus FC

Invested

$3.29

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$4.18

Record

57%

13182-10033 (23215)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Juventus FC

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralGenoa CFC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Genoa CFC

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Genoa CFC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.