Genoa CFC leading at halftime?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 100¢ · $923 held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$923.09

Combined PnL

$79.61

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 100¢

+86% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$680.8

Total Shares838

Combined PnL+$142.02

No4 traders

Total Value$87.14

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$62.42

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Yesavg 65¢	$607.58	$459.61	+$57.34	58% 1001-729 (1730)
RN1	Yesavg 38.3¢	$136.51	$221.19	+$84.68	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 21.2¢	$100.96	$155.15	+$54.18	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ No leg	Noavg 21.2¢	$93.66	$120.67	+$27.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.4¢	$7.3	$34.48	+$27.18
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 84¢	$105	$63.75	-$41.25	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$38.22	$23.21	-$15.01	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.38	$0.18	-$2.2	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.96	$0.01	-$3.95	60% 9402-6388 (15790)

MinevaJ

Yes

Invested

$607.58

Value

$459.61

PnL

+$57.34

Record

58%

1001-729 (1730)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$136.51

Value

$221.19

PnL

+$84.68

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$100.96

Value

$155.15

PnL

+$54.18

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

No$93.6621.2¢+$27.01

Yes$7.315.4¢+$27.18

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$105

Value

$63.75

PnL

-$41.25

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$38.22

Value

$23.21

PnL

-$15.01

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.2

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.95

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.