Juventus FC leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.8K
$-1.4K
90.2¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJ | Noavg 92¢ | $3.1K | $1.7K | $-1.4K | 58% 1001-729 (1730) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $64.81 | $56.02 | -$8.79 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $27.5 | $37.75 | +$10.25 | 47% 4451-4924 (9375) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $15.58 | $4.67 | -$10.91 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.32 | $3.99 | +$0.66 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
Invested
$3,099.82
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
58%
1001-729 (1730)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$64.81
Value
$56.02
PnL
-$8.79
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$37.75
PnL
+$10.25
Record
47%
4451-4924 (9375)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.58
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$10.91
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$3.32
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$0.66
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.