Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 69¢ · $49K held · ended Oct 28

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$48.7K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 68.5¢

+30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares34,074

Combined PnL+$2.3K

No5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,077

Combined PnL-$38.09

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.2¢	$13.4K	$14.6K	+$1.2K	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$3.9K	$6.7K	+$2.8K	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$2.2K	$5.0K	+$2.7K
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$27.24
KW kwzo	Yesavg 69¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	-$46.38	46% 66-77 (143)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$7.0K	$5.9K	$-1.0K	56% 2631-2084 (4715)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.9¢	$5.5K	$3.2K	$-2.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.2¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$5.1K	$4.2K	-$918.08	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.8¢	$1.3K	$2.2K	+$903.37
└ No leg	Noavg 57.8¢	$3.9K	$2.0K	$-1.8K
MI MinevaJ	Yesavg 42.7¢	$8.8K	$3.4K	+$881.36	58% 1001-729 (1730)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR	Noavg 82.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$22	67% 2621-1278 (3899)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 39.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$32.3	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$30.95
└ No leg	Noavg 63.9¢	$917.6	$854.34	-$63.26
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 83¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$17.19	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 43.1¢	$403	$630.78	+$227.78	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 58¢	$321.04	$318.89	-$2.15	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 32¢	$237.3	$240.75	+$3.45	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$204.52	$194.61	-$9.91	52% 13570-12415 (25985)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.7¢	$59.14	$120.09	+$60.95
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$145.38	$74.52	-$70.86
BE Betziko	Yesavg 33.9¢	$59.25	$121.62	+$62.37	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$24.4	$24.2	-$0.2	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$8.4	$12.6	+$4.2	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$7.02	$5.67	-$1.35	64% 997-567 (1564)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.9	+$0.05	47% 2067-2357 (4424)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$13,417.5

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,934.25

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Yes$2,245.4230.9¢+$2.7K

No$1,688.8231¢+$27.24

kwzo

Yes

Invested

$6,400

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$46.38

Record

46%

66-77 (143)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$6,957.06

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

Both legs:

No$5,477.6951.9¢$-2.3K

Yes$1,479.3638.2¢+$1.2K

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$5,140.76

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$918.08

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

Yes$1,287.1240.8¢+$903.37

No$3,853.6457.8¢$-1.8K

MinevaJ

Yes

Invested

$8,784.36

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$881.36

Record

58%

1001-729 (1730)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276CTR

Invested

$2,491.33

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$22

Record

67%

2621-1278 (3899)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,038.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$32.3

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

Both legs:

Yes$1,120.4639.4¢+$30.95

No$917.663.9¢-$63.26

CannaeCTR

Invested

$1,456.64

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$17.19

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$403

Value

$630.78

PnL

+$227.78

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$321.04

Value

$318.89

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$237.3

Value

$240.75

PnL

+$3.45

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$204.52

Value

$194.61

PnL

-$9.91

Record

52%

13570-12415 (25985)

Both legs:

Yes$59.1433.7¢+$60.95

No$145.3861.5¢-$70.86

Betziko

Yes

Invested

$59.25

Value

$121.62

PnL

+$62.37

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$24.4

Value

$24.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$4.2

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.02

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$1.35

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

47%

2067-2357 (4424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.