Exact Score: Genoa CFC 1 - 1 Juventus FC?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $739 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$739.11
$5.15
91.1¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $281.08 | $281.22 | +$0.14 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 86¢ | $258 | $261 | +$4.5 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 87¢ | $167.31 | $167.31 | -$0 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $29.24 | $29.58 | +$0.51 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.