Exact Score: Genoa CFC 1 - 0 Juventus FC?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $448 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$447.61
-$298.65
93.4¢ → 100¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93¢ | $664.96 | $369.02 | -$295.94 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $38.8 | $35.8 | -$3 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $28.05 | $28.07 | +$0.01 | 99% 12681-184 (12865) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.29 | $7.29 | -$6 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.54 | $4.41 | +$3.87 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.62 | $3.02 | +$2.41 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
Invested
$664.96
Value
$369.02
PnL
-$295.94
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$35.8
PnL
-$3
Record
73%
1485-544 (2029)
Invested
$28.05
Value
$28.07
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
12681-184 (12865)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$7.29
PnL
-$6
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$3.87
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$3.02
PnL
+$2.41
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.