Will Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 90¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 28

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

-$600.16

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 89.5¢

+12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares13,209

Combined PnL+$935.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares17,759

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 79.8¢	$8.5K	$9.3K	+$821.69	56% 2631-2084 (4715)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$57.2	46% 66-77 (143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$2.5K	$1.0K	$-1.5K	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
oieshfn345	Noavg 82.7¢	$799.66	$783.61	-$16.05	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.8¢	$524.59	$612.82	+$88.24	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83.4¢	$301.19	$314.39	+$13.2	52% 13570-12415 (25985)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 83¢	$243.94	$249.35	+$5.41	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
RN1	Noavg 73¢	$227.66	$246.72	+$19.06	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$180.99	$193.84	+$12.85	58% 18416-13508 (31924)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$72.19	$74.38	+$2.19	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
MI MinevaJ<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$52.9	$52.97	+$0.07	58% 1001-729 (1730)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 86¢	$45.12	$47.15	+$2.02	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 75¢	$11.25	$12.38	+$1.13	54% 6053-5127 (11180)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 87¢	$10.41	$10.75	+$0.34	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10.33	$9.37	-$0.96	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 72¢	$4.97	$5.21	+$0.24	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$2.7	$2.8	+$0.09	58% 40796-29505 (70301)

Anon455

Invested

$8,520.88

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$821.69

Record

56%

2631-2084 (4715)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,551.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$57.2

Record

46%

66-77 (143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,540.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

oieshfn345

Invested

$799.66

Value

$783.61

PnL

-$16.05

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$524.59

Value

$612.82

PnL

+$88.24

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$301.19

Value

$314.39

PnL

+$13.2

Record

52%

13570-12415 (25985)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$243.94

Value

$249.35

PnL

+$5.41

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

RN1

Invested

$227.66

Value

$246.72

PnL

+$19.06

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$180.99

Value

$193.84

PnL

+$12.85

Record

58%

18416-13508 (31924)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.19

Value

$74.38

PnL

+$2.19

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

MinevaJ<$100

Invested

$52.9

Value

$52.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

1001-729 (1730)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$45.12

Value

$47.15

PnL

+$2.02

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$1.13

Record

54%

6053-5127 (11180)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.33

Value

$9.37

PnL

-$0.96

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.