Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Genoa CFC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.5K
-$16.01
43¢ → 43.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $889.24 | $878.9 | -$10.34 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $395.52 | $393.1 | -$2.42 | 56% 6915-5530 (12445) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $207.25 | $203.98 | -$3.27 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.9¢ | $23.89 | $23.95 | +$0.06 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $2.92 | $2.89 | -$0.03 | 53% 2082-1842 (3924) |
Invested
$889.24
Value
$878.9
PnL
-$10.34
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
0xheavy888Invested
$395.52
Value
$393.1
PnL
-$2.42
Record
56%
6915-5530 (12445)
VeryLucky888Invested
$207.25
Value
$203.98
PnL
-$3.27
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$23.89
Value
$23.95
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.89
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
2082-1842 (3924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.