Frosinone Calcio vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$4.8K
-$115.78
61.8¢ → 60¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 62.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$110.99 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 39.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$3.98 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 59.6¢ | $990.9 | $988.62 | +$7.83 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $56 | $40 | -$16 | 59% 31860-22491 (54351) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $4 | -$0.6 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
Invested
$2,440.75
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$110.99
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,386.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.98
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
VeryLucky888Invested
$990.9
Value
$988.62
PnL
+$7.83
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$56
Value
$40
PnL
-$16
Record
59%
31860-22491 (54351)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.