Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 6.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$2.0K
$16.74
95.2¢ → 98.9¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$82.15 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $39.86 | $42.39 | +$0.86 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 4.7¢ | $73.3 | $17.18 | -$66.27 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 98.9¢ | $7.92 | $7.92 | +$0 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$1,823.02
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$82.15
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$39.86
Value
$42.39
PnL
+$0.86
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$73.3
Value
$17.18
PnL
-$66.27
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.92
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.