Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 5.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$3.1K
$225.23
91.2¢ → 99.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$108.98 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 85¢ | $542.58 | $635.14 | +$86.81 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 84.7¢ | $219.25 | $230.51 | +$11.26 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 15¢ | $50.13 | $62.68 | +$12.54 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.1¢ | $28.77 | $30.14 | +$1.37 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.7¢ | $1.08 | $4.41 | +$3.33 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 7.9¢ | $2.41 | $3.35 | +$0.94 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
Invested
$2,018.5
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$108.98
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$542.58
Value
$635.14
PnL
+$86.81
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$219.25
Value
$230.51
PnL
+$11.26
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$50.13
Value
$62.68
PnL
+$12.54
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$28.77
Value
$30.14
PnL
+$1.37
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$3.33
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$2.41
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.94
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.