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Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 1 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5

1 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Over (4%) · Over at 18¢ · $157K held · ended Nov 1

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket
SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

24

Over 4%

Total Value

$157.0K

Combined PnL

$12.5K

Research grade

AvoidOver at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

  • Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
  • Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
  • Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 24 top traders (4%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%
Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader
Total Value$89.2K
Total Shares178,333
Combined PnL-$833.74
Under23 traders
Total Value$67.8K
Total Shares105,439
Combined PnL+$13.3K
Over — 4%Under — 96%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

5% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians
whaleUnder 83% · 6
Diverging
sharpUnder 100% · 2
Diverging
ctrUnder 100% · 13
Diverging
Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3
Diverging
Top 1000Under 94% · 18
Diverging
NB
nb1985CTR
Over

Invested

$90,000

Value

$89.2K

PnL

-$833.74

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

RN1
Under

Invested

$16,601.67

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

0X
0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3
Under

Invested

$10,630.79

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

2543-2531 (5074)

KY
Kyn008
Under

Invested

$8,728.9

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$890.7

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

GO
GoalLineGhost
Under

Invested

$5,917.35

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

WE
WeBuyHighWeSelllow
Under

Invested

$2,850

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

us391
Under

Invested

$2,120.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$81.56

Record

51%

1712-1674 (3386)

RA
rabbitfoot1
Under

Invested

$1,734.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1154-1007 (2161)

HRTrading
Under

Invested

$4,633.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$94.71

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

VeryLucky888
Under

Invested

$1,255

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

UP
UpTheBlues
Under

Invested

$924.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$239.35

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

SN
SnakeBall
Under

Invested

$699.25

Value

$896.47

PnL

+$197.22

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

AN
AnonymousUsername
Under

Invested

$697.4

Value

$695.22

PnL

-$2.18

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

AN
Anon455
Under

Invested

$373.75

Value

$548.8

PnL

+$175.05

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

0xheavy888
Under

Invested

$200

Value

$210

PnL

+$10

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

LE
LeLynxMalynx
Under

Invested

$160.4

Value

$172.33

PnL

+$11.92

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

GH
ghorrock
Under

Invested

$152.81

Value

$162.07

PnL

+$19.46

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

FO
Forecastication2<$100
Under

Invested

$94.34

Value

$89

PnL

-$5.34

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

LU
LuckyLoo<$100
Under

Invested

$41.92

Value

$41

PnL

-$0.92

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

LO
lonmi2511<$100
Under

Invested

$40.88

Value

$40.64

PnL

-$0.23

Record

62%

1191-724 (1915)

FO
foooool<$100
Under

Invested

$24.89

Value

$24.89

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

OM
omnibus-076daa<$100
Under

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

0X
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100
Under

Invested

$5

Value

$5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

AM
ameisgoat11<$100
Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

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EV Calculator

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$405.83
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.

Market Info

Condition ID
0x75ea05c7...d65fb4
Slug
sea-fro-tor-2026-11-01-total-3pt5

Traders in this Market

NB

nb1985

CTR

Over — $89.2K

-$833.74

RN1

Under — $24.5K

+$7.9K
0X

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under — $11.8K

+$1.2K
KY

Kyn008

Under — $9.6K

+$890.7
GO

GoalLineGhost

Under — $8.6K

+$2.7K
WE

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under — $2.9K

+$0

us391

Under — $2.0K

-$81.56
RA

rabbitfoot1

Under — $1.7K

+$0

HRTrading

Under — $1.3K

+$94.71

VeryLucky888

Under — $1.3K

-$5
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