Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 32¢ · $151K held · ended Nov 1

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$151.3K

Combined PnL

$-5.6K

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 31.5¢

-32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares59,444

Combined PnL$-5.8K

Under5 traders

Total Value$915.28

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL+$239.62

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracARB<$100	Overavg 41¢	$111.4K	$124.3K	+$15.5K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$78.9K	$94.3K	+$15.9K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$30.4K	$30.0K	-$389.65
RN1CTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$16.2K	$13.2K	$-2.9K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 51.5¢	$11.3K	$8.7K	$-2.6K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$296.81	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 50.7¢	$622.16	$827.69	+$205.53	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$710.6	$677.31	-$33.29	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Overavg 67¢	$998.3	$670.5	-$454.45	53% 551-493 (1044)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 38.3¢	$328.59	$248.97	-$79.63	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$229.05	$236.31	+$7.26	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$175.15	$138.98	-$36.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.2¢	$66.17	$97.34	+$43.43
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 30¢	$63.62	$95.46	+$24.89	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
└ Under leg	Underavg 30¢	$41.68	$69.43	+$20.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.1¢	$21.94	$26.03	+$4.1
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Underavg 30¢	$33.79	$60.81	+$27.03	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$57	$43.5	-$13.5	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$48.18	$39.71	-$8.46	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$29.64	$30.16	+$0.52	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52.2¢	$12.81	$16.55	+$3.74	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3	$7.15	+$3.35	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 31¢	$1.35	$3.09	-$0.02	53% 16119-14285 (30404)

NooseracARB<$100

Over

Invested

$111,397.84

Value

$124.3K

PnL

+$15.5K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Both legs:

Over$78,904.8641¢+$15.9K

Under$30,416.2851.7¢-$389.65

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$16,165.56

Value

$13.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$11,274.88

Value

$8.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LilybaeumCTR

Over

Invested

$1,824.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$296.81

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$622.16

Value

$827.69

PnL

+$205.53

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$710.6

Value

$677.31

PnL

-$33.29

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

MrBentlyCTR

Over

Invested

$998.3

Value

$670.5

PnL

-$454.45

Record

53%

551-493 (1044)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$328.59

Value

$248.97

PnL

-$79.63

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$229.05

Value

$236.31

PnL

+$7.26

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Over$175.1546¢-$36.17

Under$66.1743.2¢+$43.43

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$63.62

Value

$95.46

PnL

+$24.89

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Both legs:

Under$41.6830¢+$20.8

Over$21.9442.1¢+$4.1

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Under

Invested

$33.79

Value

$60.81

PnL

+$27.03

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.18

Value

$39.71

PnL

-$8.46

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.64

Value

$30.16

PnL

+$0.52

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$12.81

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$3.74

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.