Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 0.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $154 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$154.05
-$39.11
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 86.3¢ | $44.16 | $51.12 | -$0.63 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 84.9¢ | $42.45 | $42.48 | +$0.02 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $25.53 | $23.02 | -$2.51 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $6.01 | $22.38 | +$2.73 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.3¢ | $6.3 | $14 | +$7.7 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 7.3¢ | $0.32 | $0.72 | +$0.4 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $47.17 | $0.34 | -$46.83 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
Invested
$44.16
Value
$51.12
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$42.45
Value
$42.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.53
Value
$23.02
PnL
-$2.51
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$6.01
Value
$22.38
PnL
+$2.73
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$14
PnL
+$7.7
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.72
PnL
+$0.4
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$47.17
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$46.83
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.