Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 73¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

-$126.49

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 72.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares9,197

Combined PnL-$31.74

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,413

Combined PnL-$94.75

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 25.2¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$608.82	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$3.2K	$3.8K	+$610.39
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.57
AN Anon455	Noavg 75¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$11.62	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$73.97	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$916.46	$935.29	+$18.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.1¢	$753.41	$660.61	-$92.8
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$95.54	65% 1754-960 (2714)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$947.66	$981.36	+$33.7	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$521.56	$551.65	+$30.09
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$426.1	$429.71	+$3.61
RN1	Noavg 78.3¢	$562.88	$542.96	-$19.91	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$207.05	$203.81	-$3.25	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.1¢	$148.66	$143.31	-$5.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.5¢	$58.39	$60.5	+$2.1
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$147.41	$147.5	+$0.1	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$34.94	$35.45	+$0.51	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221u<$100	Noavg 72¢	$33.84	$33.84	-$0	— 3-6 (9)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.95	$21.8	-$0.15	50% 19439-19808 (39247)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$12	$12.25	+$0.25	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.45	-$0.15	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.96	$6.07	+$0.1	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.35	$4.28	-$0.08	48% 8942-9563 (18505)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,682.29

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$608.82

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Both legs:

Yes$3,205.9325.2¢+$610.39

No$1,476.3670.1¢-$1.57

Anon455

Invested

$4,086.52

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$11.62

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,669.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$73.97

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

No$916.4673¢+$18.83

Yes$753.4129.1¢-$92.8

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,268.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$95.54

Record

65%

1754-960 (2714)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$947.66

Value

$981.36

PnL

+$33.7

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

Yes$521.5626¢+$30.09

No$426.171.9¢+$3.61

RN1

Invested

$562.88

Value

$542.96

PnL

-$19.91

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$207.05

Value

$203.81

PnL

-$3.25

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

Both legs:

No$148.6673.1¢-$5.35

Yes$58.3928.5¢+$2.1

VeryLucky888

Invested

$147.41

Value

$147.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.94

Value

$35.45

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LmmmxYyqXz5221u<$100

Invested

$33.84

Value

$33.84

PnL

-$0

Record

—

3-6 (9)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$21.95

Value

$21.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.96

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.