Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Frosinone Calcio O/U 2.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 75¢ · $309 held · ended Nov 1

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$308.92

Combined PnL

$11.9

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$97.89

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$4.67

Over1 trader

Total Value$18.85

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$7.23

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 11.7¢	$100	$192.18	-$4.24	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.7¢	$70.66	$150.66	-$16.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$38.19	$41.52	+$12.18
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 75¢	$75.4	$87.77	+$2.41	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 15.4¢	$11.62	$18.85	+$7.23	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69¢	$7.86	$10.13	+$2.27	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$192.18

PnL

-$4.24

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Over$70.6611.7¢-$16.42

Under$38.1969¢+$12.18

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$75.4

Value

$87.77

PnL

+$2.41

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.62

Value

$18.85

PnL

+$7.23

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$7.86

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$2.27

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.