Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Frosinone Calcio O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 50¢ · $182 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$182.4
$10.46
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Underavg 45.4¢ | $130.25 | $137.43 | +$7.18 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.4¢ | $80.7 | $88.84 | +$8.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $49.55 | $48.58 | -$0.97 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $20.69 | $24.63 | +$3.94 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 29.7¢ | $9.53 | $16.05 | +$6.52 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $4.29 | $4.29 | +$0 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$130.25
Value
$137.43
PnL
+$7.18
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.69
Value
$24.63
PnL
+$3.94
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$16.05
PnL
+$6.52
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.