Spread: Frosinone Calcio (-1.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Torino FC (88%) · Torino FC at 65¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Torino FC
8
Torino FC 88%
$3.6K
$358.33
75.3¢ → 64.5¢
-14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralTorino FC at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Torino FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Torino FCavg 74.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.3K | +$360.32 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
SN SnakeBall | Torino FCavg 82.9¢ | $187.45 | $190.8 | +$3.34 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Torino FCavg 74¢ | $91.88 | $99.38 | -$3.45 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Torino FCavg 65.6¢ | $58.59 | $57.5 | -$1.09 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Torino FCavg 73.5¢ | $37.79 | $10.75 | -$0.04 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Torino FCavg 66.5¢ | $8.47 | $8.7 | +$0.23 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Frosinone Calcioavg 27¢ | $4.11 | $2.74 | -$1.37 | 65% 1758-962 (2720) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Torino FCavg 70¢ | $2.33 | $2.73 | +$0.4 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
Invested
$2,980.7
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$360.32
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$187.45
Value
$190.8
PnL
+$3.34
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$91.88
Value
$99.38
PnL
-$3.45
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$58.59
Value
$57.5
PnL
-$1.09
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$37.79
Value
$10.75
PnL
-$0.04
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.47
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$2.74
PnL
-$1.37
Record
65%
1758-962 (2720)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.