Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Frosinone Calcio (67%) · Frosinone Calcio at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Torino FC<1¢Frosinone Calcio>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Frosinone Calcio

Consensus Traders

Frosinone Calcio 67%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$64.19

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 99.1¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrosinone Calcio at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Frosinone Calcio

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Torino FC1%

Frosinone Calcio99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Frosinone Calcio6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,322

Combined PnL+$85.03

Torino FC3 traders

Total Value$48.41

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$20.84

Frosinone Calcio — 67%Torino FC — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Frosinone Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Torino FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Frosinone Calcio) disagree here.

whaleFrosinone Calcio 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFrosinone Calcio 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTorino FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Frosinone Calcio 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Frosinone Calcioavg 86.5¢	$405.97	$459.77	+$53.8	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
FO foooool	Frosinone Calcioavg 86¢	$400	$425.58	+$25.58	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
AN Anon455	Frosinone Calcioavg 90¢	$225	$228.75	+$3.75	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Frosinone Calcioavg 90¢	$90	$91.5	+$1.5	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Frosinone Calcioavg 97.8¢	$34.23	$34.48	+$0.25	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR<$100	Torino FCavg 14¢	$48.84	$29.65	-$19.19	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Torino FCavg 14¢	$11.05	$9.88	-$1.16	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Torino FCavg 13¢	$9.37	$8.87	-$0.49	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
HRTrading<$100	Frosinone Calcioavg 89¢	$1.78	$1.93	+$0.15	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

GoalLineGhost

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$405.97

Value

$459.77

PnL

+$53.8

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

foooool

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$400

Value

$425.58

PnL

+$25.58

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Anon455

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$225

Value

$228.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

topdogbigboi<$100

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$90

Value

$91.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

UpTheBlues<$100

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$34.23

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR<$100

Torino FC

Invested

$48.84

Value

$29.65

PnL

-$19.19

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Torino FC

Invested

$11.05

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$1.16

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

CannaeCTR<$100

Torino FC

Invested

$9.37

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

HRTrading<$100

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralFrosinone Calcio at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Frosinone Calcio

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Frosinone Calcio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Torino FC) and the top 1000 (6 on Frosinone Calcio) disagree here.

whaleFrosinone Calcio 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFrosinone Calcio 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTorino FC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Frosinone Calcio 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Frosinone Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.