Frosinone Calcio leading at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $523 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$522.65
$95.91
71.8¢ → 100¢
+39% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 68.9¢ | $210.42 | $305.19 | +$94.76 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 RN1 | Noavg 73¢ | $72.28 | $102.22 | +$29.94 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 83.1¢ | $111.31 | $88.56 | -$22.75 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $14.88 | $22.08 | +$7.2 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $17.85 | $4.61 | -$13.24 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
Invested
$210.42
Value
$305.19
PnL
+$94.76
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
RN1Invested
$72.28
Value
$102.22
PnL
+$29.94
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$111.31
Value
$88.56
PnL
-$22.75
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.88
Value
$22.08
PnL
+$7.2
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$17.85
Value
$4.61
PnL
-$13.24
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.