Torino FC leading at halftime?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.4K
$216.5
78.5¢ → 100¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 80¢ | $460.96 | $575.91 | +$114.95 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 72¢ | $270 | $326.25 | +$56.25 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 83¢ | $164.34 | $197.9 | +$33.56 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $166.04 | $160.75 | -$5.29 | 25% 97-288 (385) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $57.98 | $69.83 | +$11.84 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $34.8 | $39.98 | +$5.18 | 53% 3213-2834 (6047) |
RN1Invested
$460.96
Value
$575.91
PnL
+$114.95
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
VeryLucky888Invested
$270
Value
$326.25
PnL
+$56.25
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$164.34
Value
$197.9
PnL
+$33.56
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$166.04
Value
$160.75
PnL
-$5.29
Record
25%
97-288 (385)
poshposh<$100Invested
$57.98
Value
$69.83
PnL
+$11.84
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$5.18
Record
53%
3213-2834 (6047)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.