Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$8.5

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,168

Combined PnL-$13.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$936.28

Total Shares1,914

Combined PnL+$21.66

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.21	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$873.33	$882.43	+$9.1
└ No leg	Noavg 51¢	$317.14	$320.25	+$3.11
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 52.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$13.08	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$810.27	$827.15	+$16.88	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$246.82	$242.32	-$4.5	72% 6826-2619 (9445)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$180.7	$182.58	+$1.88
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$66.12	$59.74	-$6.38
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$75.41	$80.44	+$4.19	53% 16110-14274 (30384)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$28.1	$28.69	+$0.59	56% 14220-11020 (25240)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.55	-$0.08	52% 7485-6781 (14266)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,190.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.21

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

Both legs:

Yes$873.3348¢+$9.1

No$317.1451¢+$3.11

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,126.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$13.08

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Yes

Invested

$810.27

Value

$827.15

PnL

+$16.88

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$246.82

Value

$242.32

PnL

-$4.5

Record

72%

6826-2619 (9445)

Both legs:

Invested

$75.41

Value

$80.44

PnL

+$4.19

Record

53%

16110-14274 (30384)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.1

Value

$28.69

PnL

+$0.59

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7485-6781 (14266)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.