Exact Score: Frosinone Calcio 0 - 0 Torino FC?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$3.2K
-$176.74
95.6¢ → 85.6¢
-10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $3.2K | $2.8K | -$340.32 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $97.67 | $264.96 | +$167.29 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $53.05 | $47.55 | -$5.5 | 76% 4144-1304 (5448) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.62 | $2.41 | +$1.79 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
RN1Invested
$3,171.56
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$340.32
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$97.67
Value
$264.96
PnL
+$167.29
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$53.05
Value
$47.55
PnL
-$5.5
Record
76%
4144-1304 (5448)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$2.41
PnL
+$1.79
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.