Will Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$3.4K
$67.38
73.8¢ → 70.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$10.34 | 55% 3007-2438 (5445) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75¢ | $815.19 | $815.19 | +$15.75 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $668.48 | $729.24 | +$60.76 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 75¢ | $247.36 | $247.36 | -$0 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $73.24 | $71.23 | -$2.01 | 52% 13925-12698 (26623) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $92.07 | $11.8 | +$2.33 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $10.05 | $10.4 | +$0.35 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $9.32 | $9.86 | +$0.54 | 59% 46883-33151 (80034) |
Invested
$1,508.97
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$10.34
Record
55%
3007-2438 (5445)
Invested
$815.19
Value
$815.19
PnL
+$15.75
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
RN1CTRInvested
$668.48
Value
$729.24
PnL
+$60.76
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
Invested
$247.36
Value
$247.36
PnL
-$0
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$73.24
Value
$71.23
PnL
-$2.01
Record
52%
13925-12698 (26623)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$92.07
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$2.33
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.05
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$0.54
Record
59%
46883-33151 (80034)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.