Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$5.0K
$6.21
51.8¢ → 50.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$20.35 | 50% 2543-2531 (5074) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$127.57 | 51% 142-136 (278) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $806.47 | $907.28 | +$100.82 | 50% 1233-1231 (2464) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50.2¢ | $746.84 | $153.71 | +$12.61 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
Invested
$2,034.99
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$20.35
Record
50%
2543-2531 (5074)
Invested
$1,999.89
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$127.57
Record
51%
142-136 (278)
Invested
$806.47
Value
$907.28
PnL
+$100.82
Record
50%
1233-1231 (2464)
VeryLucky888Invested
$746.84
Value
$153.71
PnL
+$12.61
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.