Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to Score

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 71¢ · $420 held · ends Nov 1

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$420.46

Combined PnL

$4.73

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 70.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$366.95

Total Shares522

Combined PnL+$4.73

No4 traders

Total Value$53.51

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$0

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 69¢	$216.82	$218.55	+$4.73	58% 42612-31008 (73620)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 70¢	$148.4	$148.4	+$0	50% 7121-7157 (14278)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$22.2	$22.2	+$0	57% 29203-21595 (50798)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$21.55	$21.55	-$0	53% 16101-14270 (30371)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6.37	$6.37	+$0	56% 14204-11005 (25209)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.39	$3.39	+$0	49% 12981-13546 (26527)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$216.82

Value

$218.55

PnL

+$4.73

Record

58%

42612-31008 (73620)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$148.4

Value

$148.4

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7121-7157 (14278)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29203-21595 (50798)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$21.55

Value

$21.55

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

16101-14270 (30371)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

14204-11005 (25209)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12981-13546 (26527)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.