Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 5.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 82¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 29

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 82¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares20,434

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares11,652

Combined PnL+$155.64

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 85.1¢	$10.3K	$9.6K	-$672.85	53% 1123-985 (2108)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 84.6¢	$5.1K	$4.3K	-$788.7	50% 24694-24376 (49070)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 15¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$99.78	49% 12407-12722 (25129)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 13.2¢	$462.95	$716.79	+$253.84	49% 18841-19244 (38085)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 88¢	$632	$606.96	-$25.04	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 66¢	$494.01	$490.27	-$3.74	49% 669-690 (1359)
RN1	Underavg 75.1¢	$526.91	$459.49	-$67.41	54% 56046-48172 (104218)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 17.5¢	$149.49	$162.78	+$13.3	56% 2787-2207 (4994)
└ Over leg	Overavg 17.5¢	$87.5	$97.5	+$10
└ Under leg	Underavg 76.4¢	$61.99	$65.28	+$3.3
MA maxiplayer	Underavg 82.6¢	$1.0K	$61.95	+$55.69	77% 699-213 (912)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 83.9¢	$30	$28.44	-$1.56	67% 23213-11610 (34823)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 20.3¢	$15.15	$16.74	+$1.59	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 86¢	$13.74	$13.58	-$0.16	59% 9693-6689 (16382)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 72¢	$7.2	$7.15	-$0.05	—

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$10,278.97

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$672.85

Record

53%

1123-985 (2108)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,109.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$788.7

Record

50%

24694-24376 (49070)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$1,419.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$99.78

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$462.95

Value

$716.79

PnL

+$253.84

Record

49%

18841-19244 (38085)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$632

Value

$606.96

PnL

-$25.04

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$494.01

Value

$490.27

PnL

-$3.74

Record

49%

669-690 (1359)

RN1

Under

Invested

$526.91

Value

$459.49

PnL

-$67.41

Record

54%

56046-48172 (104218)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$149.49

Value

$162.78

PnL

+$13.3

Record

56%

2787-2207 (4994)

Both legs:

Over$87.517.5¢+$10

Under$61.9976.4¢+$3.3

maxiplayer

Under

Invested

$1,042.23

Value

$61.95

PnL

+$55.69

Record

77%

699-213 (912)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$28.44

PnL

-$1.56

Record

67%

23213-11610 (34823)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.15

Value

$16.74

PnL

+$1.59

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$13.74

Value

$13.58

PnL

-$0.16

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.