Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 48¢ · $364 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$364.15
$9.79
45.7¢ → 47.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 45.8¢ | $158.08 | $172.71 | +$14.63 | 49% 18804-19198 (38002) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $71.55 | $79.5 | +$7.95 | 58% 28249-20836 (49085) |
IC ic4cream<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $77.88 | $66 | -$11.88 | 59% 2625-1841 (4466) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $16.45 | $17.5 | +$1.05 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $15 | -$2.1 | 52% 3660-3323 (6983) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $13.3 | $13.44 | +$0.14 | 50% 24675-24348 (49023) |
Invested
$158.08
Value
$172.71
PnL
+$14.63
Record
49%
18804-19198 (38002)
Invested
$71.55
Value
$79.5
PnL
+$7.95
Record
58%
28249-20836 (49085)
Invested
$77.88
Value
$66
PnL
-$11.88
Record
59%
2625-1841 (4466)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$17.5
PnL
+$1.05
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.1
Value
$15
PnL
-$2.1
Record
52%
3660-3323 (6983)
Invested
$13.3
Value
$13.44
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
24675-24348 (49023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.