Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 88¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$9.1K
$16.54
88¢ → 87.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Aleksey1993 | Overavg 88¢ | $8.0K | $8.0K | -$0 | 76% 153-48 (201) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $393.25 | $409.64 | +$16.39 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $274.82 | $274.8 | -$0.02 | 53% 15762-13930 (29692) |
 noosh3 | Overavg 88¢ | $250 | $250 | -$0 | 52% 252-229 (481) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $204 | $204 | +$0 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $4.2 | $4.38 | +$0.17 | 57% 13208-10063 (23271) |
Invested
$7,952.96
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
76%
153-48 (201)
Invested
$393.25
Value
$409.64
PnL
+$16.39
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
Invested
$274.82
Value
$274.8
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
15762-13930 (29692)
noosh3Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
252-229 (481)
Invested
$204
Value
$204
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$0.17
Record
57%
13208-10063 (23271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.