Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: Frosinone Calcio O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$1.4K
$177.26
34.8¢ → 42¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 34.9¢ | $724.46 | $872.89 | +$148.43 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538 | Overavg 65¢ | $422.5 | $422.5 | +$6.5 | 68% 1444-689 (2133) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 34¢ | $94.47 | $116.8 | +$22.33 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.