Spread: Frosinone Calcio (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold US Lecce (67%) · US Lecce at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
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Neutral
US Lecce
3
US Lecce 67%
$3.1K
$87.94
82¢ → 82¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUS Lecce at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | US Lecceavg 82¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$91.38 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Frosinone Calcioavg 18.8¢ | $82.22 | $78.66 | -$3.56 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 HRTrading<$100 | US Lecceavg 79¢ | $3.16 | $3.28 | +$0.12 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.