Will US Lecce win on 2026-10-29?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$5.82

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 79.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL-$20.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,151

Combined PnL+$26.5

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 80¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$15	67% 2623-1280 (3903)
YO yohan75	Noavg 81¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.5	53% 269-237 (506)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$696.87	$714.29	+$17.42	59% 44951-31350 (76301)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$275.16	$282.8	+$7.64	50% 24602-24271 (48873)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 80¢	$129.41	$130.23	+$0.82	58% 41092-29767 (70859)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$57.4	$58.83	+$1.43	53% 15822-14001 (29823)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$15

Record

67%

2623-1280 (3903)

yohan75

Invested

$1,053

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$6.5

Record

53%

269-237 (506)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$696.87

Value

$714.29

PnL

+$17.42

Record

59%

44951-31350 (76301)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.16

Value

$282.8

PnL

+$7.64

Record

50%

24602-24271 (48873)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$129.41

Value

$130.23

PnL

+$0.82

Record

58%

41092-29767 (70859)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.4

Value

$58.83

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

15822-14001 (29823)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.