Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Frosinone Calcio leading at halftime?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.5K
$154.75
56.1¢ → 50¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56.9¢ | $691.73 | $766.15 | +$74.42 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55¢ | $412.5 | $472.5 | +$60 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 55¢ | $109.07 | $124.94 | +$15.86 | 54% 4826-4065 (8891) |
28 2829<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $66.63 | $74.96 | -$0.59 | 46% 411-485 (896) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $45.2 | $50.25 | +$5.05 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
Invested
$691.73
Value
$766.15
PnL
+$74.42
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888Invested
$412.5
Value
$472.5
PnL
+$60
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$109.07
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$15.86
Record
54%
4826-4065 (8891)
Invested
$66.63
Value
$74.96
PnL
-$0.59
Record
46%
411-485 (896)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$45.2
Value
$50.25
PnL
+$5.05
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.