Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.5K
$77.99
54.1¢ → 50¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 54.7¢ | $401.27 | $498.84 | +$97.56 | 54% 56046-48172 (104218) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 51¢ | $353.54 | $471.01 | +$117.47 | 53% 5549-4916 (10465) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 49¢ | $496.99 | $346.32 | -$160.9 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 60.6¢ | $156.77 | $175.99 | +$19.22 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 24.9¢ | $16.32 | $20.96 | +$4.64 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
RN1Invested
$401.27
Value
$498.84
PnL
+$97.56
Record
54%
56046-48172 (104218)
Invested
$353.54
Value
$471.01
PnL
+$117.47
Record
53%
5549-4916 (10465)
Invested
$496.99
Value
$346.32
PnL
-$160.9
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
Invested
$156.77
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$19.22
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$16.32
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$4.64
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.