Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: 1st Half O/U 0.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$6.0K
$75.86
63.6¢ → 59¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Shimi1234 | Overavg 62.3¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$82.77 | 38% 104-167 (271) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 36.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$152.59 | 54% 56046-48172 (104218) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$26.5 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 77.1¢ | $742.45 | $616.36 | -$126.09 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 76.5¢ | $420.35 | $375.81 | -$44.54 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 36.7¢ | $340.38 | $333.69 | -$6.68 | 50% 33068-32636 (65704) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 27.7¢ | $120.11 | $156.12 | +$36.01 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $7.87 | $14.92 | +$7.05 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $3.78 | $5.04 | +$1.26 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$82.77
Record
38%
104-167 (271)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,155.72
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$152.59
Record
54%
56046-48172 (104218)
Both legs:
Invested
$420.35
Value
$375.81
PnL
-$44.54
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
Invested
$340.38
Value
$333.69
PnL
-$6.68
Record
50%
33068-32636 (65704)
Invested
$120.11
Value
$156.12
PnL
+$36.01
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$7.87
Value
$14.92
PnL
+$7.05
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.78
Value
$5.04
PnL
+$1.26
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.