Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Frosinone Calcio 0 - 1 US Lecce?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.5K
$6.37
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$7.31 | 50% 33068-32636 (65704) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $34.98 | $47.72 | +$12.74 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.05 | $2.8 | +$0.75 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.49 | $1.69 | +$0.2 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.4 | $0.4 | +$0 | 54% 56046-48172 (104218) |
Invested
$1,452.14
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.31
Record
50%
33068-32636 (65704)
Invested
$34.98
Value
$47.72
PnL
+$12.74
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.8
PnL
+$0.75
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56046-48172 (104218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.