Will Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.83

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 50.5¢

-35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,856

Combined PnL-$69.77

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,620

Combined PnL+$65.94

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 79¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$52.5	51% 1360-1299 (2659)
0010001000001100	Noavg 78¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$18.18	65% 1353-725 (2078)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76.9¢	$997.05	$998.59	+$1.55	50% 24694-24376 (49070)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$873.72	$912.75	+$39.03	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$224.48	$245.85	+$21.38	56% 2787-2207 (4994)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 78¢	$118.87	$118.33	-$0.53	52% 13665-12485 (26150)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$74.55	$77.94	+$3.39	53% 15855-14038 (29893)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$33.66	$35.19	+$1.53	58% 28255-20837 (49092)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.3¢	$20.32	$20.93	+$0.61	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.85	-$0.1	54% 6137-5210 (11347)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$1,382.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$52.5

Record

51%

1360-1299 (2659)

0010001000001100

Invested

$1,418.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$18.18

Record

65%

1353-725 (2078)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$997.05

Value

$998.59

PnL

+$1.55

Record

50%

24694-24376 (49070)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$873.72

Value

$912.75

PnL

+$39.03

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$224.48

Value

$245.85

PnL

+$21.38

Record

56%

2787-2207 (4994)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$118.87

Value

$118.33

PnL

-$0.53

Record

52%

13665-12485 (26150)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.55

Value

$77.94

PnL

+$3.39

Record

53%

15855-14038 (29893)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.66

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$1.53

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.32

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

6137-5210 (11347)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.