Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $40K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$39.6K
$777.55
49¢ → 48¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $20.0K | $20.4K | +$408.6 | 47% 46-52 (98) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $17.3K | $17.7K | +$361.64 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $831.99 | $848.97 | +$16.98 | 59% 2542-1763 (4305) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $256.08 | $251.04 | -$5.04 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186 | Underavg 52¢ | $250 | $250 | +$0 | 53% 138-123 (261) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 52¢ | $120.25 | $115.63 | -$4.63 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$20,016.4
Value
$20.4K
PnL
+$408.6
Record
47%
46-52 (98)
Invested
$17,310.61
Value
$17.7K
PnL
+$361.64
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
Invested
$831.99
Value
$848.97
PnL
+$16.98
Record
59%
2542-1763 (4305)
VeryLucky888Invested
$256.08
Value
$251.04
PnL
-$5.04
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$250
Value
$250
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
138-123 (261)
Invested
$120.25
Value
$115.63
PnL
-$4.63
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.