Frosinone Calcio vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 67¢ · $884 held · ends Oct 29

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$883.96

Combined PnL

$102.4

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$611.32

Total Shares1,063

Combined PnL+$249.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$272.64

Total Shares641

Combined PnL-$147.53

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 34¢	$356.32	$602.6	+$246.28	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 65.5¢	$397.6	$255	-$137.78	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$27.39	$17.64	-$9.75	53% 5516-4867 (10383)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$3.99	$6.95	+$2.96	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.08	$1.77	+$0.69	50% 32969-32506 (65475)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$356.32

Value

$602.6

PnL

+$246.28

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$397.6

Value

$255

PnL

-$137.78

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.39

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$9.75

Record

53%

5516-4867 (10383)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.99

Value

$6.95

PnL

+$2.96

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.69

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.