Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 27¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$5.82

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 26.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$759.84

Total Shares2,797

Combined PnL+$3.08

No3 traders

Total Value$120.24

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$2.74

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.1K	$293.46	+$5.34	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$930.65	$255.93	+$4.65	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$145	+$45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$55	-$45
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$101.72	$93.73	-$7.99	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$82.33	$84.53	+$2.2	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
HI hi774cCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$181.64	$49.95	+$0.91	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 71¢	$27.87	$28.46	+$0.59	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$22.25	$21.82	-$0.43	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$64.09	$17.62	+$0.32	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$12.07	$12.29	+$0.22	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$11.25	$11.46	+$0.21	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.3	$7.25	-$0.05	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.99	$1.88	-$0.11	33% 1254-2572 (3826)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.73	$1.7	-$0.03	47% 2072-2311 (4383)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,067.14

Value

$293.46

PnL

+$5.34

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$930.65

Value

$255.93

PnL

+$4.65

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$101.72

Value

$93.73

PnL

-$7.99

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$82.33

Value

$84.53

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

hi774cCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.64

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.91

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$27.87

Value

$28.46

PnL

+$0.59

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.25

Value

$21.82

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.09

Value

$17.62

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.07

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.46

PnL

+$0.21

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.11

Record

33%

1254-2572 (3826)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.