ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$3.2K
-$83.92
77¢ → 93.5¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8 | Underavg 77¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$44.35 | 66% 198-103 (301) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 77.4¢ | $841.22 | $797.64 | -$43.58 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 76.5¢ | $65.71 | $61.68 | +$0.02 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $47.84 | $52 | +$4.16 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $6.7 | $6.52 | -$0.17 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
Invested
$2,309.35
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$44.35
Record
66%
198-103 (301)
Invested
$841.22
Value
$797.64
PnL
-$43.58
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Invested
$65.71
Value
$61.68
PnL
+$0.02
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
Invested
$47.84
Value
$52
PnL
+$4.16
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$0.17
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.