Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 36¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.1K
$144.54
38.1¢ → 35.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 37¢ | $300.2 | $397.56 | +$97.36 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538 | Overavg 65¢ | $325 | $322.5 | -$2.5 | 68% 1443-688 (2131) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 39.3¢ | $184.17 | $229.56 | +$45.39 | 53% 15854-14033 (29887) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 38.8¢ | $195.86 | $100.73 | -$0.37 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $21.62 | $26.48 | +$4.86 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 37.5¢ | $3.75 | $3.55 | -$0.2 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
Invested
$300.2
Value
$397.56
PnL
+$97.36
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$325
Value
$322.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
68%
1443-688 (2131)
Invested
$184.17
Value
$229.56
PnL
+$45.39
Record
53%
15854-14033 (29887)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$195.86
Value
$100.73
PnL
-$0.37
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$21.62
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$4.86
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.55
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.