ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
1 arb excluded
$11.6K
$427.96
90.7¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$2.62 | 98% 12846-196 (13042) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $3.9K | $3.5K | -$410.58 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 86¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$41.45 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 20.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$369.14 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 72.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$316.03 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 87¢ | $217.5 | $218.75 | +$1.25 | 56% 2788-2211 (4999) |
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 17¢ | $51.87 | $130.3 | +$78.43 | 53% 15858-14039 (29897) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $89.49 | $91.05 | +$1.56 | 50% 3386-3329 (6715) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $30.22 | $59.26 | +$29.05 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 18.9¢ | $2.34 | $1.36 | -$0.98 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
Invested
$5,243.56
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$2.62
Record
98%
12846-196 (13042)
Invested
$3,912.45
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$410.58
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,993.27
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$316.03
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$217.5
Value
$218.75
PnL
+$1.25
Record
56%
2788-2211 (4999)
Invested
$51.87
Value
$130.3
PnL
+$78.43
Record
53%
15858-14039 (29897)
Invested
$89.49
Value
$91.05
PnL
+$1.56
Record
50%
3386-3329 (6715)
Invested
$30.22
Value
$59.26
PnL
+$29.05
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.34
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.98
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.