ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.2K
-$293.42
95.9¢ → 95.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 95.9¢ | $2.3K | $1.2K | $-1.1K | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 4¢ | $60.93 | $746.39 | +$685.46 | 49% 18814-19213 (38027) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 4¢ | $10.86 | $133.04 | +$122.18 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 94.5¢ | $29.27 | $29.72 | +$0.45 | 57% 13341-10198 (23539) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $34.56 | $18.36 | -$16.2 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
Invested
$2,316.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$60.93
Value
$746.39
PnL
+$685.46
Record
49%
18814-19213 (38027)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$133.04
PnL
+$122.18
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
Invested
$29.27
Value
$29.72
PnL
+$0.45
Record
57%
13341-10198 (23539)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$16.2
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.