Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: ACF Fiorentina O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $830 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$829.55
$49.43
47.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $410.17 | $541.08 | +$130.91 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 53¢ | $322.91 | $232.95 | -$89.96 | 50% 33084-32648 (65732) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $30.12 | $31.64 | +$8.09 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $11.52 | $11.8 | +$0.28 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.2¢ | $6.77 | $8.43 | +$1.66 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $5.18 | $3.65 | -$1.54 | 53% 2127-1893 (4020) |
Invested
$410.17
Value
$541.08
PnL
+$130.91
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
Invested
$322.91
Value
$232.95
PnL
-$89.96
Record
50%
33084-32648 (65732)
Invested
$30.12
Value
$31.64
PnL
+$8.09
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.52
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$0.28
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.77
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$1.66
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$1.54
Record
53%
2127-1893 (4020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.